Summer stalemate continues but lots going on under the surface in preparation for autumn regime changes
There is a good possibility that Bo Xilai himself may be cleared of wrongdoing at the trial and that could pave the way for his return to the higher rungs of Chinese power, a Chinese government official said. However, a smooth regime change in China is still expected to take place as scheduled in November with Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang taking over from Hu Jintao and Wen Jiaobao. In addition, two-thirds of the top several hundred leaders in China are expected to be replaced by younger people during the transition. This will be the biggest change in China’s government in over a decade and will lead to a major change in style and perhaps substance too. Regime change in the US is also due in November but the leadership change is expected to be messier than in China. If the corporate government remains in power then the faction supporting Obama and the faction supporting Romney will duke it out in a giant battle of dollars and propaganda. However, the US could also go into revolutionary mode in which case all bets are off. Regime change is also expected in Europe this fall but it will be a change in the financial, rather than the political regime. What happens there depends in large part on the esoteric financial negotiations going on between Asia and the West over the summer.